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Despite positive PMIs for Europe and disappointing ones for the USA, the EUR/USD has seen significant movements. Initially, the EUR/USD opened on Monday with a gap, equivalent to a 200-point move from the weekend. The Euro strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a high of 1.0781 before experiencing a sharp drop.
Analysing the fundamentals, it’s clear that European data is currently stronger than US data. For instance, the German, French, and Italian manufacturing PMIs have shown improvements, with only the Spanish PMI slightly declining. On the other hand, the US manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing prices, and employment figures have all come in lower than expected. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP now forecast has also been revised downward, reflecting a weakening economic outlook for the US.
Despite this seemingly favorable data for the Euro, it’s essential to consider the broader market context. Political events in Europe, such as the recent French elections, have influenced market sentiment. The far-right party’s performance, with around 33-36% of the vote, has been seen as positive for the economy, contributing to investor confidence and a stronger Euro.
Conversely, in the US, the recent debate between Biden and Trump has highlighted concerns about Biden’s fitness for office, impacting market sentiment. The US Supreme Court ruling granting Trump some immunity concerning the 2020 election results has also influenced the market, causing the US dollar to strengthen.
Additionally, the US dollar index and the US 30-year bond yields have shown a significant gap, typically leading to a stronger Euro. This interplay of economic data and political developments explains the recent volatility in the EUR/USD pair.
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